Showing posts with label Analytics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Analytics. Show all posts

22 July 2009

Numbers Game – Statistical Analysis & Management

Working with a company that has been family-owned and operated for several decades has provided me with a sort of second-hand history lesson in business-practice and management. Through the lunch-room and water cooler stories of the family's octogenarian patriarch and his son (the company’s current President), all with a heavy coating of my father’s 35 years of overlapping experience on both sides of the retail game and his tendency to comment on and contextualize everything I am exposed to, I’ve been privy to a mini crash-course in the experiences, culture and evolution of a rapidly changing and increasingly challenging business landscape.

A micro sample even within our respective market, the lessons I have learned are nonetheless universally applicable to competitive business models, which must perennially react, evolve and strive to be ahead of the curve in their given sector. Among the leading trends of the past couple decades, in direct correlation with the advancement and proliferation of computer capabilities of course, is the increased emphasis on and sophistication of market research and statistical analysis. Gone are the days in which sales was a game of throwing mud at the wall to see what would stick; today, every item must be carefully studied and micro-managed in order to exploit every shred of opportunity available in a crowded and inherently limited marketplace.

Similarly, NHL hockey has become increasingly professionalized at all levels (from management to coaching, scouting, even player personnel) in response to a progressively more competitive market for all involved. Magnifying and intensifying these pressures, the CBA and its Salary Cap structure place even greater onus on roster decisions, as shortcomings and mistakes can no longer be corrected by throwing money at the best available free agents. Where assets remain limited and funds are suddenly capped, a system that was once dominated by deep wallets suddenly and necessarily converts to an obsessive search for value.

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Evinced by the emergence of a burgeoning field of study devoted to the statistical analysis of hockey (see Hockey Analytics, Puck Prospectus, Behind the Net, Hockey on Paper, Objective NHL, Hockey Numbers, etc.), the trend towards more sophisticated means of talent evaluation has also spawned the solicitation of NHL organizations by consulting groups such as Coleman Analytics. The pioneering endeavour of statistician, Richard Coleman, and former Winnipeg Jets and Chicago Blackhawks GM, Mike Smith, Coleman Analytics is breaking ground in what could prove to be a viable long-term resource for all NHL organizations.statistics

The key to analytics, which Smith himself is careful to distinguish, is that they are not simply statistics. Stats are available in near infinite variations, limited only by the ability to objectively measure some facet of the game, but raw data can only tell you so much: the significance of analytics, on the other hand, lies in the ability to shape, contextualize, and draw relevance from the numbers. Analytics look to dig beyond the surface to discern the objectivity behind the numbers and to engineer complex new criteria by which a player’s relative impact or value can be assessed. A terrific complement to the work of an NHL GM (already tasked with formulating such guesses), analytical studies effectively present mathematically supported conjectures.

Numbers on a spreadsheet can never replace the eyes and instincts of managers and evaluators though, nor should they; according to Smith himself, his services are not to be relied upon independently of traditional forms of evaluation, but as an added mike smithlayer of intelligence and confirmation (or refutation) of what you already think you know. The bottom line is that NHL organizations, like other businesses, have a responsibility to seek out every possible edge they can in order to best position themselves within their marketplace, and this new breed of analytical consultant may offer just that (Smith claims that, in 3 seasons in the NHL, 17 of 20 teams using his services have reached the playoffs).

Most infamously instituted by Okland A’s manager, Billy Beane, in the form of Sabermetrics, the analytical movement has been slower to take hold in hockey than in other major team sports. This, Smith suggests, is at least in part the result of a ‘conservative’ hockey world that is often slow to change, but one whose general acceptance of analytics as a practical tool is bound to increase as the field of study reaches new levels of depth and refinement and, more importantly, as it becomes associated with success.

At the heart of it all, however, the Salary Cap is the catalyst that made analytics a viable and desirable resource for NHL teams in the first place: putting the onus on GM’s to assemble a winning roster with capped funds, the new structure of the NHL turns GM’s from simple spenders (particularly in the larger markets) to high-risk investors who must very selectively divvy up their resources in order to obtain the highest possible returns. Players thus effectively become stocks, thoroughly studied in terms of their relative market value, expected yield and cost-effectiveness.

Pivotal in determining a solid investment? Structured analytics, of course.

09 July 2009

Building a Winner - The ‘7-Player Profile’

As with any business executive, NHL GM’s have a very clearly defined #1 priority—to create and maintain a winning formula for the present and future of their organization. For this to be true, GM’s essentially have to predict which business plan and which product will be most successful now as well as in the future and, like any good forecaster, must carefully study and digest past results and trends while constantly adapting to emerging tendencies and evolving realities within their market. Analytics in tow, GM’s and other such executives are left with the final responsibility of compiling their findings and theories on success and projecting them into a comprehensive strategy by which to attain it—or, more accurately, they make an educated guess then wing it as needed. four%20figures%20putting%20together%20puzzle%20pieces

One such theory in NHL circles (and the only one I know in any detail as NHL GM’s typically don’t make their strategies public) is put forward by former NHL Coach & Scout and current TV Analyst & Prognosticator, Pierre McGuire. Dubbed “The 7-Player Profile”, McGuire’s theory focuses on amassing 7 crucial elements, which, according to the Profile, are: 2 very good centres (C); 1 effective power forward or ‘big-body’ presence (PF); 1 offensive defenseman (OD); 1 ‘stabilizing’ defenseman (SD); 1 elite goaltender (G); and 1 versatile impact role player (RP). Build this core, the theory claims, and success will surely follow.

A theory, though, is only as strong as it is accurate, and its validity must be judged against two basic criteria: first, it must be aligned with and neatly capsule recent historical observations; and secondly, it must be judged across time as it is pitted against future outcomes. As mentioned above, a theory’s conception ought to be based upon careful study and analysis of past results; if a theory does not support recent realities, it is automatically and inherently flawed. Once a theory is developed that can accurately explain the successes of the past, it is presented as a quasi-rule and conceptual map of the future.

In the case of McGuire’s ‘7-Player Profile’ then, we may want to look at recent Stanley Cup Champion teams and their completion rates in comparison to the profile. The past two seasons in particular offer an interesting comparison point as Pittsburgh and Detroit battled in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals.

zetterberg_calderIn 2008, the Red Wings were the victors over the Penguins in a 6-game battle. Filling McGuire’s 7 lynchpin positions were: Pavel Datsyuk (C), Henrik Zetterberg (C), Johan Franzen (PF), Brian Rafalski (OD), Niklas Lidstrom (SD), Chris Osgood (G) and, well, take your pick of impact role players on the Red Wings roster. Of course, lines become blurred by regarding Lidstrom as ‘stabilizing’ when he’s also extremely good offensively, but the 7 key elements are filled nonetheless.

Meanwhile, the Penguins made up their 7-Player Profile as follows: Sidney Crosby (C), Evgeni Malkin (C), Ryan Malone (PF), Sergei Gonchar (OD), Brooks Orpik (SD), Marc-André Fleury (G) and, well, they didn’t exactly have a Kris Draper or Kirk Maltby in their lineup (a 19 year old Jordan Staal?). Overall, the Pens’ 7-Player Profile was outmatched by that of the Wings (particularly considering Malkin’s poor play in the Finals), and the Wings emerged the victors.NHL-PENGUINS-RED-WINGS

The two teams’ tales were reversed in 2009 with nearly identical profiles. For the Red Wings, Mikael Samuelsson, Dan Cleary and Darren Helm played the role of versatile impact players (RP) as an aging Maltby and Draper played less of a role, while the balance of their profile remained in tact. For Pittsburgh, Malone was replaced by the likes of Marian Hossa, Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin (PF), while Malkin was much better and Staal and Maxime Talbot (RP) each had a tremendous impact on the series. On this go around, it was one of Detroit’s two centremen in Pavel Datsyuk who was not 100%, and so the balance was tilted towards Pittsburgh.

In terms of analyzing even minor deviations within the profile schematics then, McGuire’s theory appears to hold water. Two teams with great players in the 7 key roles battled through two hard-fought Sanley Cup Finals, each winning once when everything came together.

The last lop-sided Stanley Cup victory, meanwhile, was staged in 2006 when Anaheim disposed of Ottawa in just 5 games. For the Ducks, Ryan Getzlaf (C), Andy McDonald (C), Dustin Penner (PF), Scott Niedermayer (OD), Chris Pronger (SD), Jean-Sébastien Giguère (G) and Sami Pahlsson (RP) were all pivotal throughout the playoffs. On the Senators’ side, Jason Spezza (C), Mike Fisher (C), Wade Redden (OD) and Chris Phillips (SD) fleshed out the core of their profile, which conspicuously lacked a true power forward, elite goaltender (forever their Achilles heel) and impact role player on the level of a Sami Pahlsson. The result, 5 and out.frozen_inside060907 Remarkably, McGuire’s ‘7-Player Profile’ rather concisely capsules some apparently determining factors in the results of the past 3 Stanley Cup Championships. The true test of a theory, though, is how accurately it predicts future occurrences. In fairness here, McGuire’s theory can be traced back at least as far back as the start of the 2006-07 Playoffs, and so it can be attributed with a rather good degree of success in three consecutive instances.

Regardless, it will be interesting to keep this profile in mind as the NHL enters a new season with (perhaps) a new Champion, and new Champions after them. How many pieces of the profile does your team have in place? How do your 7 pieces compare against those of other teams? What will you need to do to match up against the best profile in the league?

As far as I can see, and if the ‘7-Player Profile’ bears fruit, Chicago is the next great up-and-coming squad (ok, we didn’t need any theory to tell us that), and Los Angeles isn’t far behind. Other teams, despite tremendous expectations, just might not have what it takes, should the profile prove definitive.